MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1005 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 041505Z - 041700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW OCCURRENCES OF HAIL APPROACHING OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING
   SEVERE DIAMETER SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ADDITIONAL
   STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN ND THIS
   MORNING.  OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT
   FOR WW ISSUANCE WITH THESE MORNING STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
   STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY IN EASTERN ND...FROM NELSON TO
   STUTSMAN COUNTIES.  GIVEN RECENT SURFACE AND STREAMLINE
   ANALYSES...THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED ALONG AN
   EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN
   HINDERED SO FAR THIS MORNING...GIVEN CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH AND
   NORTHWEST MN INTO MOST OF ND AND FAR NORTHERN SD.  HOWEVER...12Z
   UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO
   EASTERN ND.  THIS COUPLED WITH SOME MIDLEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT...LIKELY SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN ND ATTENDANT TO
   AN APPARENT LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL TROUGH PER WATER-VAPOR
   IMAGERY...IS AUGMENTING UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  SLOW WARMING OF SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A
   GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED AND/OR...AT
   BEST...NEAR SURFACE BASED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.

   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL
   APPROACHING AND/OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.  VEERED
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN NORTHEAST SD PER ABR VAD WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE
   AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.  AS THE MIDLEVEL
   IMPULSE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AN EVENTUAL
   DECREASE IN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
   SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
   EASTERN ND...AT LEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 09/04/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47739847 48779778 48969741 48959694 47739715 46829776
               46509805 46419860 46459895 46669912 47739847