ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 031951 
SPC MCD 031951 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-032145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CO INTO
NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 031951Z - 032145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CO...WITH STORMS TENDING TO
ADVANCE TOWARD THE EAST...INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
CO INTO NORTHWEST KS.  HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...RESULTING IN A 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 10 E COS...WITH THIS FEATURE LOCATED
ALONG A GENERALLY N-S ORIENTED TROUGH.  PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOTED TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KS...WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE EAST FROM THE SURFACE
LOW INTO NORTHWEST KS.  THE RESPONSE OF THE MASS FIELDS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL CO.  THE FTG VAD INDICATED VEERING WINDS AT 5-6 KM AGL
DURING THE LAST HOUR SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF THIS MIDLEVEL TROUGH.

THE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS
CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE TODAY...GIVEN HEATING OF A MOISTENING AIR
MASS WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KS AND LOWER-MID 60S IN EASTERN CO.  MLCAPE RANGES FROM
1000-2000 J/KG FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHILE AN
INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL WINDS WITHIN A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE
IS RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  GLD VAD THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATED A VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILE WITH A WEAKNESS IN
SPEEDS AROUND 700-MB AS HAS BEEN FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS
REGION.  ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...
THIS AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE LONGEVITY FOR
DISCRETE STORMS.  AS FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST
ATOP THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREATS. 
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BE LIMITED
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER FLOW AROUND 700-MB.

..PETERS/HART.. 09/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   38960338 40140308 40250222 39900038 39210007 38730060
            38720193 38730281 38960338 

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