ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021929 
SPC MCD 021929 
NCZ000-SCZ000-022200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN COASTAL SC...COASTAL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 021929Z - 022200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE SC AND MUCH OF NC.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST N OF
SAV AND IS MOVING NEWD AT ABOUT 16 TO 18 KT. GENERALLY NEWD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CENTER OF THE STORM EXPECTED TO
REACH CNTRL COASTAL SC /APPROX. 45 NNE OF CHS/ BY 00Z. MUCH OF THE
AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY STABLE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY EXISTS IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE CENTER WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 70S. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE AREAS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST AND THE THREAT FOR
TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC AND NE SC. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
SOON TO COVER THIS THREAT.

..MOSIER/HART.. 09/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   33608005 34767821 36027567 35287529 34957588 33927787
            32957942 33608005 

NNNN