ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011903 
SPC MCD 011903 
FLZ000-012030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 011903Z - 012030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SMALL/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SRN/CNTRL FL
PENINSULA...WITHIN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SLY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HERMINE. STRONG HEATING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS THIS REGION BENEATH A THIN CIRRUS CANOPY...AND HAS
YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH
TROPICAL AIR MASS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN WRN FL AT AROUND 30 KT ABOVE 1 KM
AGL...BUT STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES NEAR THE SFC AMIDST WARM
TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG CONVECTIVE
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 09/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26928205 27648157 27658080 27438021 26828039 26478086
            26508177 26928205 

NNNN