ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011815 
SPC MCD 011815 
NCZ000-VAZ000-011915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 011815Z - 011915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND WILL POSE A VERY ISOLATED WIND/TREE DAMAGE
THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE BOTH FAIRLY MEAGER...JUST ENOUGH
FLOW ALOFT /20-40 KTS IN THE 6-9KM LAYER/ WILL EXIST FOR ONGOING
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS TO POSE A SPORADIC WIND THREAT AS THEY
MOVE/PROPAGATE TO THE EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH SUNSET...AFTER WHICH ANY LINGERING THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH DUE TO AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION.  A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

..COOK/GUYER.. 09/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   35698271 35938227 36198130 36477981 36757889 36907771
            36897686 36817623 36557597 36167641 35707726 35357808
            35137874 34947949 35038025 35218096 35348164 35418219
            35448232 35698271 

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