MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND...NORTHWEST MN...NORTHEAST SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 282215Z - 282345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A
   TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...CUMULUS WAS STARTING TO BECOME MORE AGITATED ALONG A
   SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL SD...AND LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AROUND
   2205Z IN HYDE COUNTY SD. FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST...CLOUD FIELD STILL
   APPEARS RATHER FLAT ACROSS EASTERN ND...SUGGESTING SOME INHIBITION
   IS STILL PRESENT...PARTLY DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY.
   WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD COMMENCE THIS EVENING WITH WAVE EJECTING
   EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GLANCING ND/MN.
   FURTHERMORE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOME WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE
   ACROSS FAR EASTERN ND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   AROUND 35-40 KT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 DEG C/KM
   AND STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. 

   HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS MAY INITIALLY REMAIN
   SEMI-DISCRETE...WITH SOME UPSCALE GROWTH AS STORMS TRACK EASTWARD
   INTO MN. BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. CURVED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS ON REGIONAL VWP/S INDICATE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIT...AND LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SRH GREAT THAN
   150 M2/S2 EXISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ND/MN BORDER. GIVEN THE
   EXPECTED SEMI-DISCRETE NATURE OF STORMS INITIALLY...A TORNADO OR TWO
   CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
   THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 08/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48569968 48949949 49339880 49569815 49619707 49259600
               48749519 47489480 46829486 46119539 45589612 45509634
               45059734 44949827 45039881 45249894 45609890 46129892
               46699902 47709955 48569968