ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 271832 SPC MCD 271832 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-272030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND...NORTHEASTERN SD...AND WESTERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 271832Z - 272030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...OCCASIONALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORTS. NONETHELESS...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY CONFINED IN SPACE TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS EXIST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME MULTICELL/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MOREOVER...BACKING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY MAINTAIN SOME LEFT-SPLIT STRUCTURES...WITH ONE CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR FARGO ND. WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING...ONGOING HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO UPWARDS OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN TURN...THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER DEW POINTS /LOWER-MID 60S/ AND HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THEREFORE...THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE GREATEST MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE RELATED LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE. STILL...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST OF ONGOING CONVECTION MAY YIELD NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY POSE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TIMING CAVEATS...WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..PICCA/GUYER.. 08/27/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 44969854 45359916 45979932 46979933 47849892 48129787 47779681 47419607 46599522 45669540 45319584 44879685 44919798 44969854 NNNN