ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 271727 SPC MCD 271727 OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-271930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...WESTERN OH AND ADJACENT NORTHERN KY TO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 271727Z - 271930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OH INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN NORTHERN KY IN VICINITY OF THE CINCINNATI METRO AREA...WHILE THIS POTENTIAL ALSO EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OH TO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI. A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO...AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERNS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER RISK SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN LOW. IF TRENDS IN STORM INTENSITY ACROSS A LARGER AREA INCREASE...THEN A WATCH COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS INCREASING IN INTENSITY FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA NORTHWARD IN VICINITY AND EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO BORDER AREAS. THIS RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING AS NNE-SSW ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ATTENDANT TO MORNING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST INDIANA...ADVANCED EASTWARD INTO A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE RECENT INITIATION OF STORMS ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI TO AROUND 90 IN THE CINCINNATI METRO AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE FURTHER EROSION OF SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION THAT WAS DETECTED ON THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING. CU DEVELOPMENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OH TO FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MI IS A FURTHER INDICATION OF THE ONGOING STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND ELIMINATION OF THE INHIBITION. SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSES INDICATED A CORRIDOR OF CONFLUENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEING AUGMENTED BY A COUPLE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THIS REGION. VAD DATA SHOWED STRONGER BULK SHEAR INTO NORTHWEST OH/SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...WITH SHEAR TENDING TO BE WEAKER WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER...STRONGER INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST OH...AND APPARENT COLD-POOL ENHANCEMENT TO THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OH...ADJACENT NORTHERN KY AND THE CINCINNATI METRO AREA THROUGH 19-20Z. FARTHER NORTH...STRONGER BULK SHEAR MAY COMPENSATE SOME FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/27/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 38658533 39108520 39568523 40248488 41098454 41538437 42338377 42438331 42288305 41448297 40888319 39998341 39098341 38788350 38538386 38478470 38658533 NNNN