MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW INTO N CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 458...

   VALID 270046Z - 270215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 458 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...INCLUDING PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL
   TORNADO OR TWO...THROUGH 02-03Z...PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST OF KANSAS
   CITY INTO THE CHILLICOTHE MO AREA.

   DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED IMPULSE PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE ONGOING
   EVOLVING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS MAY ALSO BE NEAR A WEAK
   SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE...WITH THE QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF MOST INTENSE
   CONVECTION NOW EAST OF ST. JOSEPH.  THE SOUTHERN FLANK IS STILL
   LAGGING TO THE SOUTHWEST...ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST KANSAS CITY
   METROPOLITAN AREA...BUT THE MOST PROMINENT EMBEDDED CYCLONIC
   CIRCULATION NOW APPEARS TO BE PASSING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
   KANSAS CITY METRO.  THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY
   SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED SHEAR...AND MAY BECOME THE APEX OF A BETTER
   DEFINED BOWING REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.

   GIVEN A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY
   MODERATELY LARGE CAPE /UP TO 2000 J PER KG/ AHEAD OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST A SMALL
   SWATH OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CALDWELL...LIVINGSTON AND CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 02-03Z.  THIS MAY
   INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO.

   ..KERR.. 08/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39759391 39829369 39769329 39429353 39259420 39539390
               39759391