ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 252142 
SPC MCD 252142 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-252315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OH...NORTHERN WV
PANHANDLE...WESTERN PA...WESTERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 252142Z - 252315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS INTO
THE EVENINGS HOURS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR LAKE ERIE...PROBABLY IN THE
VICINITY OF A LAKE BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE...AS WELL AS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OH IN THE WARM SECTOR. WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME
WEAK UPPER FORCING...AND SOUTHWESTERLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KT
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUSTAIN ORGANIZED STORMS. MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...AROUND 5.5-6.0 DEG C/KM...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
HAIL PRODUCTION. BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PW VALUES
GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FROM REGIONAL VWP/S SHOW SOME SLIGHT
CURVATURE...WITH 0-1KM SRH GENERALLY AROUND 50 M2/S2 OR LESS
INDICATE THAT TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE NOT ZERO...IS LOW. 

HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
THROUGH EVENING THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN BEYOND PEAK HEATING WITHOUT STRONGER
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FOCUS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39528171 39588221 39838275 40398302 41168275 41628229
            41908187 42028165 42278106 43287902 43187848 42767819
            42247836 41207885 40327942 39928019 39708073 39528171 

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