ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 250018 SPC MCD 250018 OHZ000-INZ000-250115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 454... VALID 250018Z - 250115Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 454 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA THIS EVENING. DECREASING LIGHTNING TRENDS AND GRADUAL STABILIZATION SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TENDING TO WANE...THOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR A TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 01Z. DISCUSSION...LIGHTNING TRENDS ARE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN OH AND INDIANA. THESE TRENDS SUGGEST THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS LIKELY PEAKED ACROSS WW 454...SUGGESTING MUCH OF THIS WATCH SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 01Z. DESPITE THOSE FACTORS...RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN TO EASTERN INDIANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OH COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 25 KT PER VAD AT IND/ILN AND DTX/ SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT PERSISTS FOR THE SHORT TERM /01-02Z/. THIS THREAT SHOULD WANE FURTHER /AFTER 02Z/ AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM ALLEN COUNTY INDIANA TO GRANT AND CLINTON COUNTIES. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING MCV...NOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOWER MI/INDIANA BORDER. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY FURTHER AIDING IN THE REDUCTION IN CU DEVELOPMENT WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. ..PETERS.. 08/25/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40288701 40498589 41148520 41638461 41718391 40698385 40588440 40028475 39348479 39138557 39038619 38998669 39228706 39938706 40288701 NNNN