ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 242203 
SPC MCD 242203 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-242300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN INDIANA / W-CNTRL AND SWRN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 454...

VALID 242203Z - 242300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 454 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO MOVE EAST OF
TORNADO WATCH 454.  CONTINGENT ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS...A WATCH
EXTENSION-IN-AREA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF WRN OH AND/OR SERN
INDIANA.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS CNTRL
INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN INDIANA.  A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
TORNADIC.  THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN OH IS RELATIVELY SIMILAR
TO ERN INDIANA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S.  COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...BOTH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA AND AREA WSR-88D VAD DATA
SUGGEST THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /30-35
KT/ FOR SUSTAINING SUPERCELLS.  CONSIDERABLE VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING OF FLOW IN LOWEST 2 KM AGL --RESULTING IN 200-300
EFFECTIVE SRH-- IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION
AND TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.  THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG LIVED AND INTENSE THE STORMS IN INDIANA WILL BE ONCE THEY MOVE
INTO WRN PORTIONS OF OH.  NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THERE IS
INCREASING TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND A PORTION OF THIS AREA
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A WATCH EXTENSION-IN-AREA IN THE NEXT
30-60 MINUTES.

..SMITH.. 08/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39128543 40648441 40768357 40628343 40338349 39208424
            39108485 39128543 

NNNN