ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 242023 
SPC MCD 242023 
MOZ000-KSZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 242023Z - 242200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SUPER-RAPID SCAN 1-MINUTE SATELLITE DATA REVEAL A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEASTERN MO
WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KS WHERE IT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE WARM-SECTOR CU FIELD TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY ONGOING HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. 

WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED/CLEARED...SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE SUPPORTING
MODERATE BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE
THE KINEMATIC PROFILE IS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AS WELL AS AMPLE VENTING OF
THESE UPDRAFTS. IN TURN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CORES...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..PICCA/WEISS.. 08/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37029822 37239560 37519295 39069288 39549368 39359746
            38809838 37559907 37229899 37079859 37029822 

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