MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0500 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO...NERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 232200Z - 232330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
   EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IN
   THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF SERN NEB/SWRN IA/NWRN MO ALONG A WARM FRONT. MODERATE BUOYANCY
   AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS...RESULTING IN A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
   BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT STORM MOTIONS ARE TAKING
   UPDRAFTS QUICKLY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY. 

   ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SERN NEB JUST EAST OF LINCOLN...WHILE OTHER STRONG
   STORMS ONGOING ACROSS N-CNTRL KS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH NERN KS/SERN
   NEB WITHIN 1-2 HRS. ANY STORMS THAT BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THIS
   REGION WILL HAVE A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR...WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND
   A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. 

   WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IF THE ACTIVITY ALONG
   THE WARM FRONT AND/OR THE ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST INTO NERN KS/SERN
   NEB APPEARS TO PRESENT A MORE WIDESPREAD AND IMMINENT SEVERE THREAT.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 08/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40379861 40869823 41559755 41829664 41759564 41689510
               41459442 40699381 40149353 39559335 39139358 38969407
               38919527 39159683 39529789 40379861