ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 232010 
SPC MCD 232010 
KSZ000-OKZ000-232145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 232010Z - 232145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS STRETCHING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CURRENTLY DEPICTS A SUBTLE IMPULSE PROGRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS ITS
ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS AUGMENTING WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE. AS THIS PERTURBATION PROGRESSES FARTHER NORTHEAST...MORE
VIGOROUS GROWTH OF A CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS AND FAR
NORTHWEST OK IS ANTICIPATED...WITH LOW-LEVEL FORCING PROVIDED BY
CONFLUENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /E.G. DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S/...WHICH LIES UNDERNEATH RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORECAST AND MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
FAIRLY STRONG BUOYANCY HAS MATERIALIZED...WITH MLCAPE AROUND
2500-3000 J/KG. MOREOVER...SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW /LIKELY
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING IMPULSE/ BENEATH MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
IS SUPPORTING AROUND 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR. CONSIDERING
THESE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FIELDS...A FEW
MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. SOME SMALL UPSCALE GROWTH/BOWING MAY
OCCUR...POTENTIALLY THE RESULT OF STORM SPLITTING...WHICH IS
SUGGESTED BY MID-LEVEL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..PICCA/WEISS.. 08/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   36129976 36729980 37829943 38329922 38829900 39069901
            39169866 38889721 38299674 37209705 36249776 35959845
            35909910 36129976 

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