ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 202355 
SPC MCD 202355 
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ...FAR ERN CA...FAR SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 202355Z - 210200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...AT 2345Z...THUNDERSTORMS THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM ARE PROPAGATING SLOWLY SWWD TOWARD THE LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. SPORADIC INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED
WITH THESE STORMS AND THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL HAIL RISK
IN THE SHORT TERM...GIVEN MODERATE BUOYANCY THAT IS IN PLACE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH TIME...CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH LOWER ELEVATION AREAS...THOUGH THE PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY
FAVORABLE FOR A SUSTAINED ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...GIVEN WLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...VERY MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW...AND GENERALLY WEAKER
INSTABILITY INTO THE DESERT REGIONS. HOWEVER...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF EVEN WEAK CONVECTION CAN PERSIST ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE SWWD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW INTO SRN/SWRN AZ...ERN CA...AND
SRN NV THIS EVENING. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED/MARGINAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/DARROW.. 08/20/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   33311429 34151473 34541489 35201515 35551499 35321391
            35081310 34621220 34341141 33811053 32730967 32470995
            32391071 32501198 33051399 33311429 

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