ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 201519 
SPC MCD 201519 
MIZ000-INZ000-201715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 201519Z - 201715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY A LINE
OF TSTMS APPROACHING WRN LOWER MI. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MN/IA. SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING MODESTLY AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S F...BUT A PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS MAY BE LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH ESTIMATED MLCAPE
VALUES CURRENTLY RANGING BETWEEN 500 TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG.
ADDITIONALLY...STRUCTURE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOWS AN AREA OF
LEADING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION...BUT A MORE RECENT SURGE WAS NOTED
IN REFLECTIVITY JUST W/NW OF MKG. VWP DATA FROM GRR SHOWS 20-30 KT
OF SLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL...WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR
STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION MOVES
ONSHORE. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
PRECLUDE A GREATER WIND THREAT FROM MATERIALIZING...AND A WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 08/20/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   44088651 44878627 45178577 45188551 44888546 44328510
            44208505 43528454 42448475 41848549 41748621 41798681
            42308643 42778625 43518650 44088651 

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