ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192017 
SPC MCD 192017 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-192145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS...N-CTRL/NWRN OK...SERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 192017Z - 192145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM S-CNTRL
KS INTO PARTS OF NWRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED
TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR WICHITA SWD INTO N-CNTRL OK...WITHIN AN
AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY /E.G. 2000-2500 J/KG/ AND
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A LEE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE
POSITIONED FARTHER W...WHERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NWRN OK INTO
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST RAP-BASED
MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STEEP /6-6.5 C PER KM/...AND EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL
/20-25 KT/...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY WITH
ANY LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS THAT CAN EVOLVE.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 08/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37629660 36399717 34999897 34790128 34890184 35180180
            35320115 35590007 35989935 36819898 37829894 38089874
            38129787 38039725 37629660 

NNNN