ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170032 
SPC MCD 170032 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-170130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...FAR WESTERN IOWA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 170032Z - 170130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SUNSET....WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED LEFT-MOVING AND RIGHT-MOVING STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OAX.  THESE STORMS ARE IN A RELATIVELY WEAKLY
SHEARED...YET MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH
PRIMARILY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS.

A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFICATION...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
FORCING ALOFT FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER DARK WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING.  THIS...ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AS
CURRENTLY OBSERVED...SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

..COOK/GRAMS.. 08/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41659550 42109553 42809583 43439645 43699674 43569756
            42999829 42489874 41919884 41389856 40909807 40529746
            40349681 40369620 40719588 41259567 41659550 

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