ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 162154 
SPC MCD 162154 
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-170000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UPSTATE NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448...

VALID 162154Z - 170000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SWATHS OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING E
OF LAKE ONTARIO EWD ACROSS UPSTATE NY.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 2 TO 3 MB 2-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO SEWD TOWARD
ALBANY. MIDDAY SOUNDINGS SHOWED POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT...BUT
SUBSTANTIAL WLY FLOW WAS NOTED ESPECIALLY ON THE BUF SOUNDING.

STORMS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER W
CNTRL NY...WITH SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLY ONGOING. IN ADDITION...SOME
CELLS ARE SHOWING ROTATION POTENTIAL. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT IS
NOT HIGH...A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS CONTINUE EWD NEAR THE
WARM FRONT.

GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...AREAS JUST N AND E OF THE WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED LATER THIS EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 08/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44167596 44237510 44007363 43777315 43217287 42477339
            42497505 42617622 42757660 43097678 43357665 44167596 

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