ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152051 
SPC MCD 152051 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-152215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW OH...SE INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 152051Z - 152215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO AND A COUPLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED WARM SECTOR STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS SW
OH/SE INDIANA THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...NEAR AND JUST S OF A SURFACE WARM
FRONT.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE NEAR
1500 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
WELL AS ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.  THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE
THREAT AND EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE SUGGEST THAT A WATCH WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

..THOMPSON.. 08/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...

LAT...LON   39998509 40158440 40138359 39928322 39558306 39308326
            39168382 39058473 39118530 39408562 39658545 39998509 

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