ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142242 
SPC MCD 142242 
SDZ000-NEZ000-150045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 142242Z - 150045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL SD...AND A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IF CURRENT STORM TRENDS
PERSIST.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS FORMED OVER NWRN SD...WITH
OTHER CELLS TO THE S AS WELL. STRONG HEATING AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAVE LED TO STEEP DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE PROFILES WHICH
WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS DESPITE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S F. IN
ADDITION...SELY SFC FLOW BENEATH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT IS ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS SUFFICIENTLY FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. CAMS ALSO
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO OF STORMS EVENTUALLY
MERGING AND TURNING SEWD INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS WELL.

..JEWELL/GOSS.. 08/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43680173 44140242 45000277 45370259 45570174 45119993
            44489879 43819857 43209876 43089892 42869979 42820058
            43130111 43680173 

NNNN