ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141745 
SPC MCD 141745 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NJ...SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 141745Z - 141945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN PA ENEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING UPON STORM
COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL PA
EXTENDING NEWD INTO ERN NY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN
THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE MCD AREA OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP IN
INTENSITY...MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PA...NRN NJ...SE NY AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AT STATE COLLEGE PA AND
ALBANY NY SHOW WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF
FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION MAKING WIND DAMAGE
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE INLAND FROM THE
COAST WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 08/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   41567114 41237155 41087217 40977318 40257435 39847572
            39847620 40047675 40397711 40867711 41247662 41457522
            42537345 42627213 42427126 41897097 41567114 

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