ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131911 
SPC MCD 131911 
MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-132115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PA...NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 131911Z - 132115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN
PA...NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW OVER LAKE HURON
WITH A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND INTO CNTRL NY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS ALSO LOCATED
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THESE
BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WITH SFC TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S F. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
MCD AREA. AS INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND APPROACH 8.0 C/KM IN
AREAS THAT HEAT UP THE MOST. IN ADDITION...THE ALBANY WSR-88D VWP
SHOWS VEERED WINDS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE SFC WITH 30 TO 35
KT OF FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR MULTICELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO EWD ACROSS CNTRL NY WHERE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 08/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   41847247 42187222 42627211 43067256 43667384 43927515
            43857658 43237850 42717893 42267889 41967824 41687486
            41587315 41847247 

NNNN