ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120217 
SPC MCD 120217 
SDZ000-NEZ000-120315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN SD AND WRN/CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444...

VALID 120217Z - 120315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN SVR TSTM WATCH 444...BUT OVERALL THE SVR
THREAT APPEARS TO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ARE SLOWLY SPREADING SEWD ACROSS
CNTRL SD AND WRN NEB...WITH MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AIDED BY
AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS SERN WY. PERIODIC UPWARD PULSES IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS MAY HAVE COINCIDED WITH A
LOCALIZED SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT...BUT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING AN OVERALL
DOWNWARD TREND IN TSTM INTENSITY. STILL...A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HRS AS A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND S-CNTRL SD...BUT OVERALL TRENDS IN
DECREASING INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS FURTHER.

..ROGERS.. 08/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43369745 42249874 41530086 41250245 41270328 41670349
            41910313 42070235 42440160 42910101 43480039 43619980
            43809875 43769811 43369745 

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