MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN
   ILLINOIS...SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443...

   VALID 120207Z - 120300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT WEAKENING
   TREND IS UNDERWAY WITH THE ONGOING STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...AS ANTICIPATED...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS WW 443
   HAS EVOLVED INTO AN EXPANSIVE LINEAR COMPLEX...WITH NUMEROUS STRONG
   TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER THE PAST HOUR PARTICULARLY IN
   WEST-CENTRAL IOWA.  ONE BOWING SEGMENT WILL APPROACH THE DES MOINES
   METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS POSSIBLE THERE.  STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED EAST OF THE WATCH
   /AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS/...AND DESPITE STRONG
   INSTABILITY WITHIN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...WEAK LOW- AND
   DEEP SHEAR HAS LIMITED THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS ACTIVITY.

   A TREND TOWARD DECREASING INTENSITY OF THE STRONGER CORES HAS BEGUN
   IN THE WATCH AREA...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS AS NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
   CONTINUES.  STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
   EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING LOCAL SPATIAL
   EXTENSIONS OF THE WATCH ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
   TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS
   FAIRLY LOW.

   ..COOK/GOSS.. 08/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40589458 40569540 40549576 40439596 40239621 40079642
               40099677 40239705 40469728 40779734 40929722 41059683
               41229645 41349609 41479577 41739528 41969501 42189431
               42199345 42239252 42359161 42509085 42438990 42248941
               41948934 41628965 41329041 40899106 40659163 40629268
               40659353 40589458