ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102354 
SPC MCD 102354 
WIZ000-MNZ000-110100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440...

VALID 102354Z - 110100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN
MEASURED WIND GUSTS NEAR 40-50 KT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
ADDITIONALLY...BOWING SEGMENT IN EAST-CENTRAL MN HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WHILE INHIBITION IS INCREASING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRONG
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STORM INTERACTIONS ALONG THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD STILL RESULT IN STRONG...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THESE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR MARGINALLY
INCREASES INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND A CONCURRENT INCREASE IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ NOSES INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z. 

THE NEED FOR DOWNSTREAM WATCHES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SOUTH/EASTWARD EXTENT AND
MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF UPSCALE GROWTH/SURGING
BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG STRONGER INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

..LEITMAN.. 08/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   45979502 46899467 47279438 47349405 47139352 46799244
            46679143 45379154 44849192 44849241 44859547 45979502 

NNNN