ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102053 
SPC MCD 102053 
NDZ000-MTZ000-102230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT...WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 102053Z - 102230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SVR WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

DISCUSSION...AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS
MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
HAS ERODED WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG. TSTM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN MT INTERACTS WITH THIS UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE PROVIDED
BY CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
CNTRL ND/MT BORDER. 

INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOSTER
VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS -- I.E 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT -- WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SVR COVERAGE CURRENTLY
PRECLUDES HIGHER WATCH PROBABILITIES BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..MOSIER/DARROW.. 08/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   48370519 48880454 48970389 48680298 47840246 46930280
            46460390 46880533 48370519 

NNNN