ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102045 
SPC MCD 102045 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-102245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NE SD...SE ND...WCNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...

VALID 102045Z - 102245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
NERN SD ...SERN ND AND WCNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004 MB LOW OVER WCNTRL SD
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO NERN SD AND WRN
MN. THE AIRMASS ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S F. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST OF
ABERDEEN ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND
IN COVERAGE AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABERDEEN WSR-88D VWP SHOWS
SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 40 TO 50 KT
OF FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS. THIS IS CREATING 35 TO 40 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL AIDE LARGE HAIL FORMATION WITHIN SUPERCELLS AND THE
MOST DOMINANT SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
EARLY THIS EVENING...MCS DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR.

..BROYLES/DARROW.. 08/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   44359674 44349803 44879956 45350052 45780042 46969797
            47359585 47419461 47079387 46429374 45869421 44969559
            44359674 

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