ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101755 
SPC MCD 101755 
UTZ000-AZZ000-102030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN UT...NRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 101755Z - 102030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL POSSIBLE.
LIMITED SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN PERSISTENT CU OVER
THE PAST HOUR WITH THE MOST RECENT IMAGERY SHOWING MORE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA CONFIRM THIS WITH A RECENT
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOTED ACROSS FAR NW AZ AND FAR SW
UT. THIS INCREASE CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH SRN CA. COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND DIURNAL HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...DESPITE GENERALLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT VERTICAL SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT WILL EXIST AS TSTM ACTIVITY PERSISTS AND INCREASES IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BUT SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SVR COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE MONITORED.

..MOSIER/DARROW.. 08/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON   37911330 38881245 39201139 38991083 37791034 36441030
            35411088 34801195 35231338 36401375 36591374 37911330 

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