ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100605 
SPC MCD 100605 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-100700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN ND / NERN SD / W-CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437...

VALID 100605Z - 100700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT.  A WIND GUST AT OR ABOVE 65 KT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MESOSCALE
ENVIRONMENT/ORGANIZED LINEAR MODE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SEVERE FORWARD-PROPAGATING SQUALL
LINE ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER EAST OF THE MO
RIVER.  05Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM CENTRAL MN WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN
NORTHEASTERN SD AND INTERSECTING THE SQUALL LINE.  A WELL-DEVELOPED
COLD POOL AND EFFECTIVE FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO W-CNTRL SD
TO A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN WY.  A PRONOUNCED INDENTATION IN
THE PRESSURE FIELD IS NOTED IN IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE
WITH A RISE/FALL COUPLET OVER NORTH-CENTRAL SD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF ND.  A RESERVOIR OF LOW 70S DEWPOINTS RESIDES S OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST-CENTRAL MN.

THE MATURE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT WHERE ACCESS TO RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND GREATER
BUOYANCY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND STRONGER
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  A 40-KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET /PER THE KABR VAD/ WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT
OF PARCELS NEAR THE FRONT AND COUPLED WITH STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN STORM LONGEVITY.  THE ABSORPTION OF A SUPERCELL
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE MAY RESULT IN A COMMA HEAD WITH SWATHS OF
HIGHER-GUST POTENTIAL.  IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS WILL
MAXIMIZE OVER NORTHEASTERN SD/FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

..SMITH.. 08/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46009971 46169829 45859650 45359555 44919599 45229981
            46009971 

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