ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092335 
SPC MCD 092335 
MTZ000-100100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MONTANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436...

VALID 092335Z - 100100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL /POTENTIALLY OVER
2 INCHES/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS...STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ORGANIZED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. AS MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADS NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FARTHER EAST OVER
CENTRAL MT...AIDED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND
STRENGTHENING WARM-AIR ADVECTION. 

GGW AND BLX VWP DATA EXHIBIT AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION...AS VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES OVERLIE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. MOREOVER...FAIRLY STRAIGHT MID-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPLITTING CELLS AND/OR
BOWING SEGMENTS WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
STORMS MAY BECOME ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE SFC LAYER LATER THIS EVENING
AS TEMPS COOL...BUT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHEAR WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL GROWTH IN ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

..PICCA.. 08/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46221142 46060893 46460644 47610580 48670637 48841167
            48611278 47511292 46621191 46221142 

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