ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092019 
SPC MCD 092019 
MTZ000-092215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL/CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 092019Z - 092215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO
SVR STORMS. A WW MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.

DISCUSSION...CU CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AS SWLY
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN A FEW OF THESE CELLS BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN TRANSIENT THUS FAR. THE LACK OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS IS
LIKELY A RESULT OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND DRY LOW AND MID-LEVELS / SPC
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATED PRECIPITABLE-WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM
0.5 TO 0.7 INCH/. DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
CLOUD COVER IS MORE LIMITED...BUT SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY KEEP MLCAPE AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK
INSTABILITY...INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP WEAK ELY SURFACE WINDS
WILL SUPPORT BULK VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 45 TO 55 KT...WHICH WILL AID
IN ORGANIZATION OF THE MOST PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. 

CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND TRACK NEWD TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..MOSIER/HART.. 08/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   48000964 46920977 46061092 45471365 46491422 47621331
            48511194 48621050 48000964 

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