ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090056 
SPC MCD 090056 
NEZ000-SDZ000-090230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN SD AND FAR NORTHERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 090056Z - 090230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH IN SPACE TO
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE HOWEVER.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS SEVERAL STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
EVENING. MOST PROMINENT OF THESE IS A RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL OVER
WESTERN OGLALA LAKOTA COUNTY...WITH GIANT HAIL /I.E. GREATER THAN 2
INCHES/ POSSIBLE AS OF 0040Z...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MRMS MESH DATA
AS WELL AS SIDELOBE CONTAMINATION SHOWN ON KUDX. FARTHER
NORTH...RAPID CITY GUSTED TO 72 KTS AT 0030 UTC...LIKELY AIDED BY
NEW CELL GENERATION ALONG A SOUTHWARD-SINKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
COLD-POOL AUGMENTATION FROM A TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION.

BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD FAVOR SOME SLOW DOWNTURN OF THE SEVERE
THREAT THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS CELLS PROGRESS FARTHER EAST INTO
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT /SAMPLED BY THE 00Z ABR RAOB/.
HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR AND A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTHERN
NEB WILL ENCOURAGE A LARGE HAIL THREAT IN ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION.
MOREOVER...CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH WILL FAVOR A STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BY
03-04Z.

..PICCA/GUYER.. 08/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43200319 43860321 44600365 45010323 44760211 44120075
            43589989 42829974 42460009 42390172 42670267 43200319 

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