ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082038 
SPC MCD 082038 
WYZ000-MTZ000-082215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/ERN WY...FAR SERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 082038Z - 082215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WY AND FAR SERN MT. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A FAST-MOVING IMPULSE IS
OVERSPREADING PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN WY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
LOOP...AND IS ENCOURAGING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A BELT OF MODERATE W-SWLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL /SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S F/. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED
AROUND 500-800 J/KG. MODERATE EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDES
/30-40 KT/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. THESE THREATS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 08/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   41540517 42960626 43530851 44200876 44640819 45120702
            45110523 44030435 42840411 41660441 41520471 41540517 

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