ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 071952 
SPC MCD 071952 
MTZ000-IDZ000-072215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MONTANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 071952Z - 072215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF MONTANA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING
RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SVR
RISK CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW
ISSUANCE WILL BE UNLIKELY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO DIFFUSE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL MT CONTINUES TO ENCOURAGE POSITIVE ADVECTION OF
MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE THE
STRONGEST BUOYANCY WILL EXIST -- I.E. MLCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED BY AREAS OF CLOUDS
STUNTING SFC HEATING. THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 25-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH
ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MT INCLUDING THE GREAT FALLS
AREA...WHERE ANTECEDENT SFC HEATING HAS BEEN STRONGER IN PROXIMITY
TO THE LEE SFC LOW. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND LACK
OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT SVR RISK...THOUGH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 08/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   45351353 47071466 48331587 48981550 48961247 48820987
            47840872 45800986 44771152 44691279 45351353 

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