MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN AR.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071904Z - 072100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON
   AHEAD OF A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...AT 19Z...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS NWRN AR.
   WHILE THE CLUSTER HAS NOT PRODUCED NOTABLE WIND GUSTS THUS
   FAR...RADAR INDICATES SOME RECENT SWD ACCELERATION OF THE
   SYSTEM...LIKELY DUE TO A MATURING COLD POOL AND PERHAPS ALSO AIDED
   BY SOMEWHAT ENHANCED NLY FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER NOTED ON REGIONAL
   12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT VWPS. SOME INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A WARM/VERY MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT WHERE MODERATE-TO-STRONG BUOYANCY IS DEVELOPING AS SFC
   TEMPS WARM ABOVE 90F...THOUGH WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
   LIMIT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLUSTER AS IT ADVANCES SWD
   THROUGH ARKANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 08/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35469433 35739427 35719415 35909316 35179198 34449166
               33759157 33429201 33129246 33189332 33629396 33799434
               34869432 35469433