ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 061819 SPC MCD 061819 MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-062045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NY...NERN NJ...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 061819Z - 062045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR ISOLATED SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT LIKELY...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT A SVR TSTM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED. DISCUSSION...A RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND AND VICINITY -- ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO POCKETS OF AT LEAST FILTERED SUNSHINE AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS IS SUPPORTING AROUND 750-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE. WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL SFC HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WHILE SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RAOBS AT ALB...OKX...AND CHH SAMPLED A BAND OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW -- AROUND 30-50 KT. RELATED ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERLIE THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SUPPORTING LOCALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE 12Z RAOBS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER AREA VWPS...AND THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...DETRACT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SVR RISK. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES TO OFFER SOME DMGG-WIND RISK...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..COHEN/HART.. 08/06/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 40607383 41017417 41967379 42677318 43307230 43507124 43207048 42036971 41237043 40687306 40607383 NNNN