ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061654 
SPC MCD 061654 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-061930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NJ...ERN/SRN PA...MD...NRN DE...ERN WV
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 061654Z - 061930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR RISK MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION SPREADING
ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
AHEAD OF A NE/SW-ORIENTED COLD ANALYZED FROM S-CNTRL NY TO NRN KY.
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXES...DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED
BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS...FRONTAL ASCENT...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
ALL SERVE AS FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST
MINIMAL CAPPING. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S...MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH
30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FACILITATING LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING. LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
MOST INTENSE TSTMS...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE IMPLIED BY AREA VWPS AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS...THE DEARTH OF LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION IN THE MID
LEVELS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ALL TEND TO MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY
DENSER CLUSTERS OF DMGG WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH MORE PROMINENT
MULTICELL TSTMS -- ESPECIALLY FROM E-CNTRL PA INTO NRN/CNTRL NJ --
AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/HART.. 08/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40007854 40527753 41167630 41147492 40697435 39967421
            39447497 39177618 39447809 40007854 

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