MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NJ...ERN/SRN PA...MD...NRN DE...ERN WV
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061654Z - 061930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR RISK MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION SPREADING
   ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND VICINITY THIS
   AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   AHEAD OF A NE/SW-ORIENTED COLD ANALYZED FROM S-CNTRL NY TO NRN KY.
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXES...DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED
   BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS...FRONTAL ASCENT...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
   ALL SERVE AS FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN CONVECTION DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST
   MINIMAL CAPPING. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
   70S...MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH
   30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FACILITATING LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING. LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   MOST INTENSE TSTMS...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON.

   WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE IMPLIED BY AREA VWPS AND SFC
   OBSERVATIONS...THE DEARTH OF LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION IN THE MID
   LEVELS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   ALL TEND TO MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY
   DENSER CLUSTERS OF DMGG WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH MORE PROMINENT
   MULTICELL TSTMS -- ESPECIALLY FROM E-CNTRL PA INTO NRN/CNTRL NJ --
   AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 08/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40007854 40527753 41167630 41147492 40697435 39967421
               39447497 39177618 39447809 40007854