ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042144 
SPC MCD 042144 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-050015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/WRN/CNTRL KS...SERN NEB...FAR NWRN
MO...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 042144Z - 050015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITHIN A CORRIDOR
FROM SWRN IA SWWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NRN/WRN/CNTRL KS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W-CNTRL
KS NEWD INTO SWRN IA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS LACKING...THOUGH FRONTAL ASCENT COMBINED WITH DIURNALLY
ERODED MLCINH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO BE MAINTAINED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO THE 70S
NEAR AND SE OF THE FRONT...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS.

DEEP SHEAR IS LIMITED...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...WHICH
SHOULD MINIMIZE THE OVERALL SVR COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED
SVR-WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

SOMEWHAT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY AFFECT PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN
KS WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER IN PROXIMITY TO
THE SFC LOW. LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY MATERIALIZE
FROM AMALGAMATING COLD POOLS IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY ENHANCING THE
STRENGTH OF TSTM WIND GUSTS.

..COHEN/GUYER.. 08/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37820189 38950072 41019674 41599535 41669426 41149421
            40579493 37949938 37320102 37820189 

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