ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041715 
SPC MCD 041715 
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-041915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI INTO NERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 041715Z - 041915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS
EXPECTED FROM WI INTO ERN IA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY WATCH
DEPENDENT ON AN INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...AN MCS CONTINUES EWD ACROSS CNTRL WI WITH SOME SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING OVER NRN PARTS OF THE SYSTEM WHERE THE LINE IS
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HERE...WIND GUSTS TO
46 KT WERE RECENTLY MEASURED. AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SOME INCREASE IS POSSIBLE. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
LINE WERE WEAKER CURRENTLY...BUT COULD ALSO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED OVER ERN WI
TOWARD LAKE MI FOR WIND.

TO THE S...A LONE CELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT NERN IA...IN A ZONE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A GRAVITY WAVE
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS OTHERWISE ABSENT. THIS CELL IS MORE REMOVED
FROM THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...BUT GIVEN A SEWD STORM MOTION AND
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...COULD SLOWLY GROW IN SIZE WITH POTENTIAL
WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM LATER TODAY.

..JEWELL/HART.. 08/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42519300 42999221 44159075 44668992 44958968 45548958
            45858826 45918740 45568665 44538708 43388830 42049037
            41559118 41609208 41879276 42519300 

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