MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI INTO NERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 041715Z - 041915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED FROM WI INTO ERN IA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY WATCH
   DEPENDENT ON AN INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...AN MCS CONTINUES EWD ACROSS CNTRL WI WITH SOME SIGNS OF
   STRENGTHENING OVER NRN PARTS OF THE SYSTEM WHERE THE LINE IS
   ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HERE...WIND GUSTS TO
   46 KT WERE RECENTLY MEASURED. AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT
   AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SOME INCREASE IS POSSIBLE. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
   LINE WERE WEAKER CURRENTLY...BUT COULD ALSO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY THIS
   AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED OVER ERN WI
   TOWARD LAKE MI FOR WIND.

   TO THE S...A LONE CELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT NERN IA...IN A ZONE OF
   WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A GRAVITY WAVE
   AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS OTHERWISE ABSENT. THIS CELL IS MORE REMOVED
   FROM THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...BUT GIVEN A SEWD STORM MOTION AND
   FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...COULD SLOWLY GROW IN SIZE WITH POTENTIAL
   WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM LATER TODAY.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 08/04/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42519300 42999221 44159075 44668992 44958968 45548958
               45858826 45918740 45568665 44538708 43388830 42049037
               41559118 41609208 41879276 42519300