ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 040207 SPC MCD 040207 MNZ000-NDZ000-040400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1474 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 430... VALID 040207Z - 040400Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 430 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 430 /ACROSS NE ND AND ADJACENT FAR NW MN/. A DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MN. DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS NE ND WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE NOW ENTERING FAR NW MN. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION AT LANGDON /KD55/ IN FAR NERN ND REPORTED A 40 KT GUST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE LINE INTERACTS WITH THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION. ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE /ACROSS RAMSEY AND EDDY COUNTIES/...STORMS WITH MORE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS EXIST. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS PORTION OF THE LINE /ACROSS E-CNTRL AND SE ND/ WITH RECENT MVX VAD SAMPLING 0-3 KM SRH OVER 400 M2 PER S2. AS A RESULT...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH A THREAT FOR ALL SVR HAZARDS...INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO. EVENTUAL LINEAR TRANSITION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE LINE. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE EWD AND THE LLJ WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUGGESTING THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO NRN MN. AS A RESULT...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE ONGOING MCS AND THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE MCS IS UNCERTAIN. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS CAST SOME DOUBT REGARDING THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WATCH. CURRENT DOWNSTREAM WATCH PROBABILITY IS 40-PERCENT. ..MOSIER/GUYER.. 08/04/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48279988 48839954 49189832 49189601 48909424 48279283 47399264 46349320 46099484 46749675 47009951 47389985 48279988 NNNN