ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032055 
SPC MCD 032055 
NEZ000-WYZ000-032230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE...FAR SERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 032055Z - 032230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW REPORTS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
TSTMS NEAR/E OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN WY...WITH TSTMS PROGRESSING
TOWARDS THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS AREA IS POSITIONED ALONG THE SRN
FRINGE OF STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT...AND EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR
ESTIMATED AT 20-30 KTS WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TSTM
ORGANIZATION. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WITH A MORE MOIST AIR MASS WITH EWD
PROGRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF TSTMS INTO THE
NEB PANHANDLE. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A FEW REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT BOTH THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/HART.. 08/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...

LAT...LON   42640279 41390270 41140327 41090408 41250461 41870461
            42720461 42930411 42890327 42640279 

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