MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL ND/NWRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 031952Z - 032045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INITIAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
   WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS.  WW
   ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS
   ACROSS THE DAKOTAS CONTINUING TO BOTH HEAT AND MOISTEN...WITH
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW INTO THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE PER OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES AND 18Z/19Z SPECIAL RAOBS.  WITH THAT SAID...CAPPING
   INDICATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDINGS REMAINS IN PLACE -- AS
   ALSO HINTED AT BY LARGELY SHALLOW CU FIELD STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   REGION.

   ONE EXCEPTION IS A STORM WHICH HAS DEVELOPED INVOF THE BLACK
   HILLS...WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH-BASED CU/TCU ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN
   SD IMPLYING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
   ATTM...INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT INTO CENTRAL SD
   /ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING/ WOULD SUGGEST ONLY ISOLATED
   SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA.

   FARTHER N...EXPECT ASCENT FOCUSED INVOF THE ADVANCING SURFACE COLD
   FRONT /NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN ND/ TO COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED CAP EROSION TO RESULT IN MORE
   WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE CELLS MAY INITIALLY REMAIN
   ISOLATED /AND POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO/...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
   LOW FOCUSED LINEARLY ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
   LINE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.  THUS...RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE SHOULD
   INCREASE SOME WITH TIME...ALONG WITH CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
   HAIL.

   ..GOSS/HART.. 08/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   49049831 47569801 45999949 44310185 44370317 45970243
               46860204 47820188 49040186 49049831