ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 021923 SPC MCD 021923 COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-022130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...FAR NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 021923Z - 022130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED SVR COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. DISCUSSION...CU CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE LARAMIES WITH RECENT LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE REGION CURRENTLY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUT OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AIRMASS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S...DESPITE BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING. RESULTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY. RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J PER KG ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THIS INSTABILITY...MOST CURRENT VAD DATA FROM CYS SAMPLED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER N WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE MORE SELY. AS A RESULT...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG COLD POOLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR SVR COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED /HENCE LOWER WATCH PROBABILITY/ BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED. ..MOSIER/GUYER.. 08/02/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42570593 42960566 43110475 42940385 42450319 41450267 40960255 40620267 40340300 40090363 39980413 40000483 40320512 40850534 42570593 NNNN