ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020245 
SPC MCD 020245 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-020415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN SD...EXTREME W-CENTRAL MN...SERN ND.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429...

VALID 020245Z - 020415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 4Z BUT MAY BE EXTENDED
LOCALLY FOR PARTS OF DISCUSSION AREA IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT. 
OTHERWISE WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM NW-SE.  OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT...
BUT MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...MAINLY WITH CLUSTER OF
TSTMS ALIGNED OBLIQUELY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS SD/ND BORDER AND MOVING
SEWD.

DISCUSSION...BKN BAND OF STG/ISOLATED SVR TSTMS EXTENDED AT 230Z
FROM RICHLAND COUNTY ND WSWWD ACROSS NRN BROWN COUNTY SD...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING NOTED INTO RELATIVELY HIGH-THETAE AIR MASS OVER ERN
MCPHERSON COUNTY.  SD PART OF THIS CONVECTION...IN PARTICULAR...IS
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF NARROW PLUME OF FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER
TRAJECTORIES WELL-SAMPLED BY 00Z ABR RAOB.  MODIFIED SOUNDING STILL
SHOWS STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...
YIELDING AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE.  CINH IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
WITH TIME AND SEWD EXTENT AS NEAR-SFC LAYER SLOWLY COOLS
DIABATICALLY.  AS THAT PROCESS CONTINUES...FORCED ASCENT ALONG
LEADING OUTFLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE IMPORTANT TO
CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE...AND FINE BALANCE BETWEEN UPSCALE EXPANSION
AND QUICK DEMISE WILL BE TILTED DECISIVELY ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.  ATTM
WEAKENING APPEARS MORE PROBABLE GIVEN THESE FACTORS...
1.  SMALL WIDTH OF CONVECTIVE PLUME...
2.  LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL AND ATTENDANT PRESSURE/THETAE
PERTURBATIONS...
3.  THAT TEMPORAL INCREASE IN CINH...AS WELL AS
4.  DOWNSHEAR LESSENING OF BOTH LOW-LEVEL THETAE AND DEEP SHEAR.  
UNTIL TSTMS DO DISSIPATE...SPORADIC SVR HAIL/GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45709943 45869828 46209725 46699591 45729583 44769646
            44479796 44659866 45129927 45709943 

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