ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 010418 
SPC MCD 010418 
ILZ000-MOZ000-010615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL AND SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 010418Z - 010615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS -- AND LOCAL RISK FOR
MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS A STRONG GUST OR TWO -- WILL EXPAND OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM DUE TO EXPECTED
LIMITED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MO VICINITY...WITHIN A ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED ATOP A WEAKLY STABILIZED
BOUNDARY LAYER.  THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING SIMILARLY TO WHAT WAS
PROGGED BY BOTH ESRL AND PARALLEL RUNS OF THE HRRR...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION IN AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED.

WHILE AMPLE ELEVATED CAPE /1500 TO 2000 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
AND MODEL FORECASTS/ EXISTS...SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER
IS RELATIVELY WEAK /LOW-LEVEL WSWLYS DECREASING TO 15-25 KT FROM THE
NW AT MID LEVELS/.  AS SUCH...EXPECT INDIVIDUAL STORMS TO REMAIN
GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND SUB-SEVERE...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/STRONGER
STORMS POSING ANY SEVERE RISK.  ATTM THEREFORE...WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 08/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38289358 39189447 39779467 40029391 39979255 39239057
            38498956 37848926 37148978 37399175 38289358 

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