ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 312242 
SPC MCD 312242 
NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-010045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/ERN WY/WRN ND/WRN SD/WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427...428...

VALID 312242Z - 010045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
427...428...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH
STRONGER STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 427 AND 428.

DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOP SHOWS ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FROM WRN ND SWD INTO NERN CO.  THE STORMS ARE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHING /COMPRISED OF A FEW
SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES/ SHIFTING GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MIXED-LAYER CAPE AVERAGING 2000
TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA/ FUELING THE
CONVECTION...EXPECT THE MORE VIGOROUS CELLS /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WRN ND VICINITY WHERE MID-LEVEL FLOW -- AND THUS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR --
IS STRONGEST/ TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.

AS A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...EXPECT STORMS TO
PERSIST/SPREAD EWD INTO THE LOWER PLAINS WITH TIME...WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE RISK POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF
EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 07/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...
GGW...

LAT...LON   49079950 47089972 45750068 44390095 43210045 41800055
            41110085 40960194 41280400 43780492 46570520 47800543
            48980480 49079950 

NNNN